Center for Strategic Decision Research



Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon
Workshop Chairman and Founder
Director, Center for Strategic Decision Research

On 24 May 2001, the XVIIIth International Workshop on Political-Military Decision Making opened in historic Kronborg Castle with a reception, dinner, and address by the Workshop's Patron, Danish Minister of Defense Jan Trøjborg. One of Northern Europe's most important Renaissance castles, Kronborg, also known as "Hamlet's Castle," was added to the UNESCO World Heritage List in 2000. Workshop participants were welcomed to Kronborg by the members of the Royal Danish Horse Guard, who appear on the cover of these Proceedings. At the Louisiana Museum--Denmark's magnificent collection of modern art on the Øresund coast--former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen gave a dinner address that urged further cooperation and communication between the U.S. and Europe, as ESDP was emerging as an important issue in transatlantic security. At the Danish government's recommendation, the Workshop sessions were held at the Comwell Conference Center in the seaside town of Snekkersten north of Copenhagen. Comwell provided a relaxed environment which was conducive to interaction and discussion among participants. Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus addressed the Workshop for the third consecutive year and Slovak Prime Minister Mikulás Dzurinda for the second time.

Major presentations were given by the Defense Ministers of Canada, Portugal, Austria, Lithuania, and Sweden (as representative of the Swedish EU Presidency); the Icelandic Minister of Education, Science and Culture; the Foreign Minister of Latvia (representing the Latvian Presidency of the Council of Europe); the former Foreign Minister of Ukraine; UN Administrators for Kosovo and East Timor; NATO's Deputy Secretary General and the Deputy Supreme Allied Commander, Europe. Among other key presenters were the Director of the EU International Military Staff, the Italian Secretary General for National Defense, the Chief of Defense of Finland, a former Chef d'Etât-Major Inter-armes of France, and a former Chief of Defense of Germany (who is also a former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee). State Secretaries of Norway and Romania (representing the Romanian OSCE Presidency) spoke on behalf of their organizations. An important scientific and technical dimension of the Workshop was contributed by panel presentations of the U.S. Defense Science Board Chairman as well as representatives of the Under Secretary of Defense, Agusta, Alenia Aerospazio, Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Northrop-Grumman, and Raytheon.

The Workshop series has been sponsored in part by the Government of Denmark, Agusta, Alenia Aerospazio, Association of the United States Army, BAE SYSTEMS, BDLI (German Aerospace Industries Association), The Boeing Company, EADS (DaimlerChrysler Aerospace), General Dynamics Corporation, Lockheed Martin, Net Assessment, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon Company, STN ATLAS Elektronik GmbH, TERMA Elektronik AS, Government of the Czech Republic, Government of the Federal Republic of Germany, Government of Greece, Government of Hungary, Government of the Netherlands, Government of Norway, Government of Poland, Government of Portugal, Austrian Ministry of Defense, Italian Ministry of Defense, MITRE Corporation and the Canadian Armed Forces. Without their support, the eighteen-year series of annual Workshops would not be possible.

We would like to thank the Danish government and all the members of the Danish Ministry of Defense for their hard work in making the Workshop not only a reality but a success. In particular, our gratitude goes to Minister Trøjborg for supporting the Workshop and serving as Patron, and to the Permanent Secretary of State for Defense, Anders Troldborg, who oversaw the Danish organizational efforts and actively participated in the Workshop sessions and events. The assistance of Mr. Michael Lund Jeppesen and Ms. Mette Kjuel Nielsen with the Workshop program and overall coordination is also gratefully acknowledged. Under the excellent direction of Lieutenant Colonel Otto Grüner, his staff of Ms. Helle Poulsen, Commander Johnny Andersen and Ms. Jette Fløborg worked professionally and diligently for many months to prepare for the Workshop. We enjoyed our mutual cooperation very much.

Our warmest thanks go to the Danish Chief of Defense, General Christian Hvidt, for the excellent work of his fine staff. Major Nils Nykær and his men, Captain Henrik Pedersen, Warrant Officer Flemming Wrist-Knudsen, Lance Corporal Peter Josefsen, Lance Corporal Claus Pedersen and Lance Corporal Kenneth Nielsen played a major role in the success of the Workshop. Special thanks go to Warrant Officer Finn Hansen for his tremendous accomplishment with transportation and Major Jørgen Kold for organizing the Kronborg Castle dinner.

Every year, the Center for Strategic Decision Research's Workshop Staff plays an integral role in the success of the Workshop. Our staff members are highly trained and motivated young professionals who have other careers or are pursuing their graduate studies. They come to the Workshop on a reduced-salary or semi-volunteer basis and work long hours to ensure that the Workshop runs smoothly. For the third year in a row, the Workshop Staff was led by the Center for Strategic Decision Research's Associate Director, Ms. Mary L. Wu, J.D. (Stanford Law School) and included Mr. Ulrik Ahnfeldt-Mollerup, M.A. (Fletcher School), Ms. Rebecca Archer, J.D. (Harvard Law School), Mr. Jean-Pierre Campbell (University of New Mexico), Ms. Elena Dokuchayeva, J.D. (University of Vladivostock), Ms. Paulina Dziamka (University of New Mexico), Ms. Whitney Hischier, M.B.A. (University of California, Berkeley) and Ms. Manon van der Horden, an experienced conference and protocol specialist based in Quebec, Canada. We would like to thank them warmly for their excellent work.

The events of 11 September and their consequences. The tragic events of 11 September have irrevocably changed the fundamental nature of security. We can only hope that the horrible tragedies in New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania will bring nations together, not only to defeat terrorism but to address their fundamental causes. Neither the collapse of the World Trade Towers, the partial destruction of the Pentagon, nor the heroic actions of passengers on United Airlines Flight 93 that crashed in Pennsylvania could have been predicted by any speakers in Denmark at the XVIIIth International Workshop. In response to the first real threat to U.S. shores since Pearl Harbor, President Bush elected to respond militarily without drawing heavily on the structures of either NATO, the EU, or UN. Instead, the United States chose to rely on its own forces and a "coalition of the willing" that could possibly become the pattern for responses to similar crises that may occur in the future.

The capabilities gap. The actions of the Bush Administration are perhaps understandable given the cumbersome nature of international security organizations and the capabilities gap between the U.S. and its European Allies that became evident after NATO actions in the Balkans. The gap may be exacerbated, moreover, by the limited flexibility of European forces, which makes it difficult for them to address a sufficiently wide range of threats or to project power into a region as remote as Afghanistan.

The capabilities gap, for example, is repeatedly discussed in this volume. In fact, Secretary Cohen expressed his fears that the European pillar of NATO might not be of stone, but a "pillar of salt" if sufficient resources are not allocated. These same concerns as to the capability shortfall were expressed by Danish Defense Minister Trøjborg and Lieutenant General Schuwirth and reinforced by Admiral Jacques Lanxade, who wrote in the final chapter that "Europeans must become conscious of the consequences of their insufficient defense effort, which threatens their long-term security, their ability to be a global actor, and the transatlantic link to which they attach great importance." Although Admiral Lanxade's language may be strong, the shortfall is not entirely a European failing: it is at least partly the result of insufficient technology transfer. Especially now that defense technology depends heavily on the creative use of civil sector R&D, technology transfer-including defense investments-needs to flow across the Atlantic in both directions.

According to General Sir Rupert Smith, who addressed the Workshop as the Deputy Supreme Allied Commander, the European shortfalls are a direct result of the NATO force-planning process. To a large degree, they are the careful and deliberate consequence of meeting Cold War requirements. General Smith proposes that "European navies and air forces evolved as supporting forces for the United States striking fleet and the United States Air Force. The European armies concentrated on the territorial defense of NATO's eastern frontiers." Consequently, they were not mobile because they did not need to be.

As General Smith and others pointed out, however, the situation has now changed: forces must be flexible. In fact, according to Dr. William Schneider, Chairman of the Defense Science Board, it is no longer even possible to optimize against a specific threat. As a result, he advocates a "capability-based" planning process for the United States to replace the "threat-based" planning of the past.

The new security priorities and their underlying causes. Equally striking are the Administration's announcements of its new security priorities: the war on terrorism, Asia, and homeland defense. Perhaps Russia can be added to this list of priorities as well as ballistic missile defenses. Europe and NATO-which were at the center of U.S. foreign and security policy for much of the last century-are not explicitly mentioned. As Admiral Lanxade observed, the U.S. appears to be "ever more interested in Asia"--a point made by Alfred Volkman, Secretary Cohen, former U.S. Ambassador Robert Hunter, and others. For this reason, Al Volkman emphasized the importance of strengthening U.S. defense cooperation with Japan, Australia, Korea, and Singapore. A valid question may be, however, if the U.S. is truly shifting its focus to Asia, what role will Europe and NATO play in the U.S. defense priorities of the future?

2001 was a watershed year for global security. As priorities shift and the war on terrorism continues, new international coalitions are forming as a result. These changes present challenges for existing alliances, and especially for regional ones such as NATO, since global terrorism knows no borders. What remains clear is that the relative prosperity and stability enjoyed by Western nations are largely due to the close relations that exist among them. In order to preserve the benefits of peace, stability, and democracy and to pass them on to future generations, Western nations may need to address fundamental global problems of injustice, misery, ethnic and other rivalries, as well as lingering hatreds.

The XVIIIth Workshop in Denmark gave participants the opportunity to meet and discuss pertinent security issues; we hope that we will have the opportunity to welcome them back in 2002 for still more important discussions.


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