Events of May 1996
Anne D. Baylon
Albania
May 27 In parliamentary elections, President Sali Berisha's Democratic Party of former Communists claims victory with over 50% of the votes against less than 25% for the Socialists, despite concerns by monitors from the European Union and the U.S. about widespread fraud and intimidation at the polls.
May 28 At a rally banned by President Berisha that calls for new elections, Government riot policemen beat and arrest opposition party protesters; but Western Europe and Washington, which have endorsed Dr. Berisha as “their man in a pivotal region of the Balkans,” remain silent about the election fraud.
May 29 The two major electoral monitoring organizations in Albania's parliamentary elections—the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the International Republican Institute—officially confirm “serious irregularities” in the vote.
May 30 As the poorest nation in Europe, with a $600 a year per capita income, Albania's economical survival depends on three unusual resources: foreign aid, mostly given by Europeans as a way to prevent Albanians from immigrating illegally to Italy or Germany; earnings from the 400,000 Albanians who work abroad and send money home; and contraband, with a high volume of hard drugs transiting through Albania to Western Europe.
May 31 Since becoming President four years ago, Sali Berisha has pushed aside those who helped him found the Democratic Party, relying on former Communist leader Enver Hoxha's insiders instead. Although Dr. Berisha claims that the press is free, journalists have been arrested and jailed and the recent police beatings and arrests of opposition supporters have prompted critics to say that Dr. Berisha is turning into another Balkan dictator.
Bulgaria
May 13 As the Bulgarian government faces its most severe economic crisis since the collapse of Communism, it is considering a plan to close 65 state-run companies that employ 29,000 workers. According to Prime Minister Zhan Videnov, the plants, which account for 29% of the national budget deficit, must be closed in order to avoid “grave financial destabilization.” Transition to a market economy in Bulgaria has been hindered by political infighting and by the various post-Communist governments' wavering on implementing reforms.
Lithuania
May 14 (reported in NY Times, May 21) Lithuania arrests six people who were trying to sell 29 pounds of radioactive uranium. It is the third uranium seizure in Lithuania during 1996.
Poland
NY Times, May 5 Although Poland's crime rate is low, it has been rising, prompting citizens to demand capital punishment for perpetrators. Yet Poland needs to abolish the death penalty (a move already made by Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Romania) if it is to ultimately join the European Union. President Aleksander Kwasniewski and Prime Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz support abolishing the death penalty, but the Polish Peasants' Party—the minority partner in the government coalition—insists on maintaining it.
NY Times, May 14 For the first time since the collapse of Communism, economists are witnessing the emergence of a Polish middle class that owns businesses and buys consumer goods such as cars (car sales went up 40% in the first three months of 1996) and refrigerators. It is estimated that 10% to 15% of the population of almost 40 million, or about 6 million, belong to the middle class, defined as earning between $800 and $1,600 a month for a family of four with two working parents (the average Pole earns $300 per month).
Commonwealth of Independent States
NY Times, May 26 The Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991 resulted in one of the largest and most complex migrations ever faced by international relief agencies. Almost nine million people were uprooted, with two million fleeing regional conflicts such as those in Tajikistan and Georgia; millions more tried to undo the Stalinist Era deportations or fled ethnic tensions that arose after the fall of Communism, while others were victims of either ecological disasters that forced them to move or of traffickers who lured them into illegal immigration.
Russia
May 1 Gennadi Zyuganov, the Communist Party leader who is challenging President Boris Yeltsin for the presidency, has been helped in his rise by Aleksandr Prokhanov, an anti-Semite whose opposition newspaper calls for the violent overthrow of the President. Mr. Prokhanov was a major force in bringing Communism back to life (five years ago, it was banned from Russian life) and was able to forge an alliance between Communists and nationalists that has led to Mr. Zyuganov's new popularity.
May 5 Saying that the country is not ready for the June 16 presidential elections, Maj. Gen. Aleksandr Korzhakov, President Yeltsin's security chief and closest ally, calls for a postponement.
May 6 President Boris Yeltsin rebukes his aide's remarks and says that voting will take place in June as planned.
May 6 With only one month before the elections, the Communists have yet to produce an economic program. Eager to reassure Russian and Western business executives, however, they say that they will “support a mixed economy of private and Government-controlled enterprises” if they win the election.
NY Times, May 7 Crime has been mounting in Russia since 1991 and is expected to more than double by 2000, with a large percentage of the crimes committed by organized groups and by minors.
May 9 For many Russian voters, the health of President Yeltsin has become a central issue. Mr. Yeltsin, who drinks heavily, has a long history of health problems including two heart “ailments” which developed last year. Russia's lack of a vice presidency would make it impossible for Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin or any other political ally to run in Mr. Yeltsin's place should he die or become incapacitated before the elections.
May 10 Still lagging in the polls behind his Communist opponent Gennadi Zyuganov, President Yeltsin has begun negotiations with his democratic rival, Grigory Yavlinsky, an economist who founded the Yabloko faction of Parliament, to create an anti-Communist coalition that would prevent Mr. Zyuganov's victory.
May 13 Unlike the Communists who are relying on “old-style rallies, leafleting and canvassing” for their presidential campaign, President Yeltsin uses all the privileges of his position, such as the government's virtual monopoly on electronic media, political consulting, and polling data, to win reelection. Mr. Yeltsin has also enlisted the help of his daughter and wife and has begun to travel extensively.
May 16 Running for the presidency, former President Mikhail Gorbachev has been greeted at every stop of his campaign with indifference or rancor. Most Russians blame Mr. Gorbachev for the collapse of the Soviet Union and public opinion polls invariably give him no more than 1% of the vote.
May 17 Hopes for an anti-Communist coalition between President Yeltsin and Grigory Yavlinsky are lost after Mr. Yavlinsky sends the President a letter detailing conditions for his support, including the demand—unacceptable for Mr. Yeltsin—that he dismiss all his top government aides.
May 18 President Yeltsin discloses that he offered Mr. Yavlinsky the post of Deputy Prime Minister in charge of market reforms but that Mr. Yavlinsky had wanted more. Trained at Harvard and fluent in English, Mr. Yavlinsky is a strong market reform proponent.
May 20 As an increasing number of polls show a slight lead for President Yeltsin, Gennadi Zyuganov asks Communist Party members to refrain from using “frightening words” in their remarks about nationalizing private property. Mr. Yeltsin's camp has played upon the voters' fears by brushing off Communist promises not to confiscate property and warned that Communists might even nationalize private apartments.
May 28 Gennadi Zyuganov unveils the outline of his economic program, which relies heavily on protectionism, state control of key industries, and wage and price controls. Critics in Russia and abroad view the plan as a revival of the old Soviet command economy and claim that “it won't work now because it didn't work before.”
NY Times, May 30 Although a church ruling prohibits the clergy from campaigning in the presidential election, the Russian Orthodox Church, which is now restored after 70 years of oppression by the Soviet state, is telling parishioners not to vote for the Communists.
May 31 President Yeltsin appeals to the voters for support and releases a manifesto of his economic and political program called “Russia: Individual Family Society State.” The manifesto emphasizes a free market economy and promises stability and prosperity.
Russia/Chechnya
May 1 Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, the new Chechen leader, meets the press to dispel reports that he was killed in a fight with rival rebels. The condition he sets for peace with Russia is “the total withdrawal of Russian troops.”
May 22 Fiercely battling Russian troops, Chechen rebels defend the western Chechnya village of Bamut to protect what Russians suspect is a hidden weapons cache. Forty Russians and 120 rebels are killed.
May 23 The Kremlin announces that President Yeltsin and Chechen rebel leader Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev will hold peace talks in Moscow. The meeting offers opportunities for Mr. Yeltsin to show his interest in a peace settlement and for Mr. Yandarbiyev to attract attention to the Chechen cause.
May 27 President Yeltsin and Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev sign a treaty to end the war in Chechnya. While negotiations will continue, fighting is to stop by June 1 and hostages are to be released.
May 28 Having said repeatedly during his presidential campaign that he would visit Chechnya, President Yeltsin makes a bold one-day trip to Grozny, Chechnya's capital. The trip is intended to convince the Russian military to follow his orders and the Chechen rebel commanders to lay down their arms by June 1.
Ukraine
May 27 In an unexpected move, President Leonid Kuchma dismisses his Prime Minister, Yevhen Marchuk, a former K.G.B. officer and head of Ukraine's security service.
May 28 Pledging to uphold President Kuchma's economic reforms, Pavlo Lazarenko, a former collective farm manager and close political ally of the President, becomes the new Prime Minister.
THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA
Bosnia
NY Times, May 1 The Muslim-Croat Federation that was formed two years ago under the aegis of the U.S. was to create a joint government structure and present the city of Mostar as its showcase. Yet European Union officials in charge of administering Mostar (which is divided into a Muslim zone and a Croat zone) say that the city is out of control and that organized crime blocks attempts to build a civil society. West Mostar, held by two Bosnian Croat gangsters, has become “the car theft capital of Europe.” Mostar's pre-war population of 130,000 (34% Muslim, 33% Croat, and 19% Serb) has declined to 60,000, roughly split between Muslims and Croats.
May 1 In defiance of the Dayton Accord, which calls for freedom of movement, Serbs have been preventing Muslims attempting to visit their former homes from entering their new republic. Many Serbs say that Muslims have been granted too much in the accord while the Serbs are treated “like a poor stepchild.”
May 2 The Bosnian government has arrested two Muslims who were indicted by the war crimes tribunal for crimes committed against Serbs in 1992 at the Celebici prison camp in central Bosnia and will turn them over to the tribunal. The arrests contrast with broken promises by Serbia and Croatia to cooperate with the tribunal.
May 6 The first trial by the war crimes tribunal is scheduled to start on May 7, but the tribunal, which has indicted 57 suspects (46 Serbs, 8 Croats, and 3 Muslims) has only one Serb and two Croats in custody.
May 9 Charged with murders, rapes, and torture of Serbs at the Celebici prison in central Bosnia, Zejnil Delalic, the first Muslim taken into custody by the war crimes tribunal, pleads not guilty.
NY Times, May 12 Despite the peace accord, Bosnian Serbs are defiant and view the world as being against them. Their top leaders, Radovan Karadzic and Gen. Ratko Mladic, have been indicted by the war crimes tribunal and, unless these leaders are removed, the West will not give Bosnian Serbs reconstruction aid; they perceive the NATO peacekeeping force as an occupying force and most organizations such as the U.N. and the international press as opposed to them.
May 12 After a six-day tour throughout Bosnia, U.N. officials in charge of helping two million Bosnian refugees return to their homes (in accordance with the Dayton Accord that grants all Bosnians freedom of movement and the right to return home) say that two thirds of the refugees may never be able to go back. Their trip, they claim, clearly shows that the “engineers of ethnic cleansing are not willing to see it reversed.”
May 16 In a power struggle between Bosnian Serb factions, Radovan Karadzic, the hard-line Bosnian Serb political leader, fires Rajko Kasagic, the moderate prime minister of the self-styled republic. The move prompts German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel, NATO Sec. Gen. Javier Solana and NATO's Supreme commander in Europe Gen. George Joulwan to press Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic for the surrender of Dr. Karadzic since he has been indicted for war crimes. Mr. Karadzic is planning to run in elections scheduled for September despite being barred from office by the Dayton Peace Accord.
May 18 Although Radovan Karadzic has already appointed Goljko Klickovic, an economist, as his new Prime Minister, Rajko Kasagic, who has Western backing, refuses to step down.
May 20 The international campaign to oust Radovan Karadzic from office ends in failure as Dr. Karadzic succeeds in replacing Prime Minister Rajko Kasagic and appointing new hard-liners to key government posts. Dr. Karadzic's moves threaten international efforts to prepare for Bosnian elections, scheduled for Sept. 14.
May 21 The Bosnian government threatens to withdraw from the Sept. 14 elections unless NATO arrests Bosnian Serb leaders Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic for war crimes and the voting rules are changed to prevent Serbs from gaining electoral control over Muslim towns and villages they seized during the war.
Richard Goldstone, the war crimes tribunal's chief prosecutor, warns that NATO's refusal to order its troops to arrest the accused Bosnian Serb leaders may undermine peace in the Balkans.
May 27 Underscoring the Dayton Accord's failure to guarantee freedom of movement, Bosnian Serbs block Muslim women from entering the Prijedor area in northwestern Bosnia (Bosnian Serbs drove Muslims and Croats out of the area during the war).
May 31 In what the U.N. says is tantamount to “ethnic cleansing,” the Muslim Bosnian government has expropriated tens of thousands of Sarajevo homes that were abandoned by fleeing ethnic Serbs or Croats and turned them over to Muslim refugees.
Croatia
May 1 In a move that reflects “growing intolerance and a refusal to accept democratic change,” President Franjo Tudjman—a former Communist general—dissolves Zagreb's elected city council, which appoints the mayor and is dominated by the opposition. The move is accompanied by new press laws that make it difficult to criticize the president or government officials.
WESTERN EUROPE / EASTERN EUROPE
Conference on Conventional Weapons
May 3 An international Conference on Conventional Weapons in Geneva agrees to decrease the use of land mines in the next decade and to make them easily detectable and self-deactivating. It stops short of banning these mines totally, however, despite a worldwide campaign to ban their use.
Germany
May 14 Germany's highest court upholds laws passed in 1993 to restrict the number of foreigners permitted to enter Germany. Until 1993, Germany had very liberal laws on accepting foreigners from outside the European Union, and 400,000 foreigners per year were applying for refugee status. After 1993, the number of asylum applicants fell to 128,000 per year. Currently, Germany offers refugee status only in cases of political persecution.
May 15 A proposed merger between the city of Berlin and the eastern German state of Brandenburg is defeated by Brandenburg's former Communist voters. The results are evidence of the resentment the former East Germans feel toward their Western counterparts (they complain that their concerns are not taken seriously in Bonn). The merger has been viewed as “vital” to giving the Berlin-Brandenburg region a leading role in Europe.
Italy
May 16 Romano Prodi, an economist who led a center-left coalition to victory in April elections, is chosen to serve as Prime Minister of Italy's 55th postwar government.
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