Events of October 1996
Anne D. Baylon
Albania
Oct. 20 Voting for local elections goes relatively smoothly despite parliamentary elections marred by fraud and violence last May for which President Sali Berisha—a former Communist—was heavily criticized.
Oct. 21 As the Council of Europe, which is in charge of monitoring the local elections, reports no serious incidents of fraud, the Democratic Party of President Sali Berisha claims a “landslide victory.”
NY Times, Oct. 25 Fatos Lubonja, a writer who spent 17 years in jail during the Communist era, criticizes President Berisha for keeping Albania in the past. For example, Albania is the only ex-Communist country where the government totally controls the radio and television.
NY Times, Oct. 27 More than half of the Albanian population is involved in collecting interest from pyramid schemes that use the cash from new investors to pay shareholders. But while the schemes survive as long as higher returns can lure new investors, they always collapse over time.
Bulgaria
Oct. 2 In Sofia, former Prime Minister Andrei Lukanov is slain outside his house. One of Bulgaria's most influential political figures, Mr. Lukanov helped oust in 1989 Communist leader Todor Zhivkov (who ruled Bulgaria for 33 years) and was a strong critic of current Socialist Prime Minister Zhan Videnov. President Zhelyu Zhelev denounces the killing and parliament adopts a declaration condemning terrorism.
NY Times, Oct. 28 Successive Bulgarian governments have balked at market reform, refusing to privatize or dismantle inefficient state-owned industries and discouraging Western investment while allowing former Communist businessmen to strip state industries from their assets and send the money (between $3 billion and $5 billion) abroad. In early presidential election returns, voters register disapproval of the government, composed of former Communists, by giving a strong lead to Petar Stoyanov, the candidate of the anti-Communist Union of Democratic Forces. The function of president is mostly ceremonial, however, and carries little power.
Czech Republic
Oct. 25 The Czech Defense Ministry announces that the estimated 150 Czech soldiers who served in the 1991 Persian Gulf war will receive medical examinations starting next month. The announcement follows recent reports that many Czech veterans suffer from ailments comparable to those reported by U.S. soldiers who also served in the Gulf war. These ailments have been attributed to exposure to Iraqi chemical weapons.
Poland
Oct. 23 Parliament votes not to try Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski and other former Communist leaders for the deaths and imprisonment of opposition activists who campaigned for democracy during martial law 15 years ago.
EASTERN EUROPE
Belarus
Oct. 11 President Aleksandr Lukashenko, an openly anti-Western leader who seeks to reunite with Russia and stall market reform, has been trying to gain unlimited power by forcing through a new constitution to be decided by referendum on Nov. 7.
Oct. 19 Demonstrators march through the streets of Minsk to protest President Lukashenko's bid to “gain near absolute power.” Elected on an anti-corruption platform after Belarus—a country of 10 million—became independent in 1991, Mr. Lukashenko went along with economic reform initially, only to reverse course in 1995. Privatization has come to a halt and the country appears to be going back to the old Communist order. Mr. Lukashenko has offered to delay to Nov. 24—but not drop—the referendum planned for Nov. 7.
Russia
Oct. 1 With troops now owed three months of back wages, Defense Minister Gen. Igor Rodionov warns that the military may simply fail to respond to the Kremlin's orders, “that is, people will just stop going to work.”
Oct. 3 On television, President Boris Yeltsin says that he urged Gen. Aleksandr Lebed, his security adviser, to remain on the job although Mr. Lebed had threatened to resign because of his “dwindling authority.” Mr. Yeltsin also backs, and takes credit for, the accord Gen. Lebed concluded with Chechen rebels.
Oct. 14 Moscow has started to deport thousands of homeless people by train to distant villages where they grew up or were last registered as permanent residents. Although President Yeltsin and Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov say the deportations are part of the war on crime, the deportees have not been charged with wrongdoing, a hint that the move is to clear Moscow's streets of poor Russians and immigrants from the former Soviet republics.
Oct. 16 Anatoly Chubais, President Yeltsin's chief of staff, has emerged in a few months as a powerful force in the Russian government. A pro-capitalist economist who led Russia's privatization campaign, Mr. Chubais has the support of many free-market reformers. Asserting that an efficient state is needed for achieving economic growth, Mr. Chubais is hoping to turn Russia's “sometimes rudderless Government” into a disciplined state.
Interior Minister Anatoly Kulikov accuses his rival, national security adviser Alekskandr Lebed, of preparing a “mutiny” but Mr. Lebed dismisses the accusation as “nonsense.”
Oct. 17 Saying that “there has to be a united team,” President Boris Yeltsin dismisses Aleksandr Lebed for trying to split the Kremlin governing team. Now free to campaign to replace President Yeltsin, whom he calls “aged and sick,” Mr. Lebed immediately announces his presidential ambitions.
Oct. 18 All Russian leaders—Communists or free-market proponents—back President Yeltsin's dismissal of their rival, Aleksandr Lebed. But in Chechnya, rebel leaders say that they cannot count on Russia without Gen. Lebed and announce plans to hold elections on Jan. 27 without consulting the Kremlin.
Oct. 19 President Yeltsin chooses Ivan Rybkin, a 50-year-old moderate politician loyal to the Yeltsin administration, to replace Mr. Lebed. Unlike Mr. Lebed, Mr. Rybkin is not named national security adviser, but he combines the functions of secretary of the National Security Council and presidential envoy to Chechnya.
Oct. 24 Chronic tax evasion is the most pressing problem facing President Yeltsin's administration, forcing the government to delay the payment of wages and pensions and causing public unrest among workers. There is no single reason for the tax evasion: some companies delay tax payments until they are paid by their creditors while others simply use political connections to reduce or ignore their tax obligations.
Oct. 27 New security chief Ivan Rybkin promises Chechen rebel leaders that Russia will hold to the peace agreement signed by his predecessor, Aleksandr Lebed.
Oct. 31 Vladimir Nechai, the head of Chelyabinsk-70—a top nuclear research center which played an important role in the design and development of the Soviet nuclear arsenal—commits suicide, heightening the plight of Russian scientists who are owed back wages and demanding sorely needed funds.
Ukraine
NY Times, Oct. 18 Since President Kuchma's election victory in 1994, a new elite of politicians from the city of Dnepropetrovsk (including the President; Prime Minister; the ministers of national security, agriculture, and industry; and a host of former Soviet-era politicians) has been ruling Ukraine. The powerful “clan from Dnepropetrovsk” is being accused of corruption and of systematically looting national assets.
NY Times, Oct. 24 After five years as an independent country, Ukraine finds itself caught between a “beckoning West” and a “volatile Russia” that supplies the natural gas Ukraine needs for its industrial and home energy consumption. Russia, however, has not agreed yet on the demarcation lines of the border between the two countries. Ukraine, which is seen by Washington as a “critical buffer” between Russia and Europe, has been trying to achieve both a special understanding with NATO and a solid relationship between Russia and NATO.
Ukraine/Russia
Oct. 24 President Kuchma of Ukraine and President Yeltsin meet to discuss a 1995 agreement Russia and Ukraine made in the Crimean resort of Sochi to split the former Soviet Black Sea fleet (Russia would “purchase” most of the Ukrainian share and end up with 82% of the fleet). Both agree that Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin will go to Kiev in November to sign agreements that could lead to a cooperation treaty. But they postpone deciding the status of Sevastopol, the fleet's home town that is located in Ukrainian Crimea and coveted by both sides.
THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA
Bosnia
Oct. 1 The U.N. Security Council ends the sanctions it imposed in 1992 on Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro).
Oct. 3 U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry tells a U.S. Senate panel that up to 7,500 American troops will remain in Bosnia until next March. Five thousand troops will leave soon for a six-month tour in Bosnia in order to assist with the withdrawal of the U.S. peacekeeping force of 15,000 men scheduled to pull out by Dec. 20.
In Paris, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and Alija Izetbegovic, the chairman of the new three-member Bosnian Presidency, sign an accord brokered by French President Jacques Chirac in which they agree to establish full diplomatic relations and to move “from confrontation to cooperation.”
Oct. 5 Objecting to the wording of the oath of office and the security arrangements for the ceremony to swear in the three-member presidency and legislators, Bosnian Serb leaders refuse to attend.
Oct. 6 Political chaos, combined with porous borders, widespread poverty, and violence, has caused a thriving criminal underworld to flourish in Bosnia. Well-organized gangs of ethnic Serbs, Croats, and Muslims (the “only genuinely multi-ethnic organizations in Bosnia) have developed drug routes and prostitution rings with the complicity of local officials to whom they give bribes.
Oct. 10 As the official in charge of the civilian part of the Bosnian peace agreement, Carl Bildt asks that peacekeeping troops remain in Bosnia until 1998 in order to give Bosnia a chance to recover from the war.
NY Times, Oct. 17 The Arizona market, an improvised market located near the strategic town of Brcko in northern Bosnia, is one of the few places in Bosnia where ethnic Serbs, Croats, and Muslims can mix and work together. Cited by NATO commanders as a sign that the three groups can get along, the market is also criticized for perpetuating the lawlessness and black marketeering now common in Bosnia.
Oct. 18 Intelligence officials in Bosnia find the Bosnian Serbs in violation of the Balkans arms reduction agreement with many more heavy weapons (about 2,500 pieces) than they declared (about 1,350 pieces). The arms control agreement set limits on the number of heavy weapons the parties to the agreement can have and requires them to destroy excessive stocks.
Oct. 19 One month after the elections, the new presidency and parliament that were to unify Bosnia are being boycotted by Bosnian Serbs who are pushing ahead with plans to secede and merge with Serbia; and refugees trying to return to villages in enemy hands have been forced back.
Oct. 22 The OSCE, which is supervising elections in Bosnia, announces that municipal elections will be postponed for the second time (elections were first postponed from September to November due to irregularities in voter registration) because the Bosnian Serbs have decided to boycott the vote. But some diplomats fear that the new postponement will only solidify the lines of partition separating the three ethnic groups in Bosnia.
Oct. 24 Although the U.S. has shipped $100 million worth of military equipment intended for Bosnia to the Croatian port of Ploce, it refuses to turn it over until the Bosnian government agrees to meet certain conditions, including the dismissal of Deputy Defense Minister Hasan Cengic, who is accused of having ties to Iran.
Oct. 25 Officials in Washington and NATO have begun preparing for a new international peacekeeping force in Bosnia that would include at least 5,000 and perhaps as many as 10,000 U.S. troops.
NY Times, Oct. 27 With Bosnian leaders continuing to block the reunification of the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Bosnian Serb republic, Bosnia's industrial network—which used to employ half of the country's workers—is now unsalvageable. Production is down by 90% and what is left in the two parts of the country are two rudimentary economies that will be competing, instead of collaborating, for the same markets.
Croatia
Oct. 8 Antun Tus, a retired Croatian general, criticizes President Franjo Tudjman on Radio 101—the last independent radio station in Croatia—over Mr. Tudjman's drive to turn Croatia into a military power. Although Radio 101 resisted Communist and nationalist intolerance for 13 years, it is likely to be turned over to Tudjman supporters when its license expires in November.
Oct. 16 After a six-month delay over human rights concerns, the Council of Europe, which promotes democracy and human rights, admits Croatia as its 40th member. Croatia is the second former Yugoslav republic (Slovenia joined in 1993) to be accepted as a member.
Germany/Bosnian Refugees
Oct. 9 Some of the 320,000 Bosnian refugees who have found shelter in Germany are being threatened with expulsion as Bavaria announces that it will immediately enforce an August decree it signed, along with the other 15 German states, to return the refugees voluntarily or by force to Bosnia. German states have been financially burdened by the refugees and have pressed for their departure since the December peace agreement.
WESTERN EUROPE / EASTERN EUROPE
France/U.S.A./NATO
Oct. 12 Blaming the U.S. for its refusal to let a European officer be in charge of the Alliance's southern command (which includes the U.S. Sixth Fleet)—a post traditionally held by an American admiral—France says that it will remain in NATO politically but not militarily (except in some cases such as Bosnia). France had considered rejoining NATO's military command structure but insisted in August on European control of the two main NATO ground commands, one of which is Allied Forces Southern Command.
Norway
Oct. 23 In a surprise announcement, Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland announces her resignation, saying that she will run for reelection to parliament in September 1997 and brushing off speculation that she quit to seek the post of U.N. Secretary General. She is being succeeded by Thorbjoern Jagland, leader of the Labor Party, who is expected to follow the current government policies.
Norway/U.S.A./Russia
Oct. 5 (Reported in NY Times, Oct. 8) Norway and the United States sign the Arctic Military Environmental Cooperation Accord with Russia to help Russia (technically and financially) dispose of nuclear submarine reactors and other radioactive waste that it dumped for 30 years in the Barents and Kara seas.
Russia/NATO
Oct. 6 At NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Russian security adviser Alexander Lebed announces his goal to pursue a “complicated, but civilized dialogue” concerning NATO's enlargement.
Oct. 7 Although Gen. Lebed concedes that NATO has the right to enlarge, he urges the Alliance to delay the decision to expand for a generation in order to “allow the bitterness of the cold war to fade.”
Oct. 9 Despite possible Russian reactions, the U.S. is pushing ahead with the NATO expansion schedule that will bring several former Soviet allies into NATO in 1999. In December, NATO is to set a date (before July 97) for a summit conference that will name the first countries eligible for NATO membership.
Switzerland
Oct. 30 Switzerland announces that it will join the NATO Partnership for Peace program. The move will allow Swiss officers to observe military maneuvers and play some part in peacekeeping exercises.
Turkey
Oct. 1 Necmettin Erbakan, the leader of the pro-Islamic Welfare Party who became Turkey's Prime Minister in June, has been campaigning for closer ties with Muslim countries. After visiting Iran in August, where he signed a multibillion-dollar oil transport agreement with the government, he is about to embark on a trip to Libya, declared a terrorist state by the U.S., and Nigeria, whose military leaders have jailed the man who won the country's last presidential election. The trip is causing concern in the West.
Oct. 7 Turkey and Libya sign a deal to triple trade between the two countries, prompting U.S. criticism.
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