Events of September 1996
Anne D. Baylon
Baltic Republics/Estonia
Sept. 20 Defeating four contenders, Estonian President Lennart Meri is reelected to a second term. He promises to use his victory for promoting greater integration with the rest of Europe.
Poland
NY Times, Sept. 4 Since the collapse of Communism in 1989, young Polish professionals have taken advantage of the growth of foreign companies in Poland (from 1,100 companies in 1990 to 27,000 today) to fill middle management positions, especially in finance, law, and marketing. These professionals typically earn 10 times the average Polish salary and often enjoy perks such as company cars or pensions.
Romania/Hungary
Sept. 16 Ending five years of negotiations, Romania and Hungary sign a treaty on the status of Romania's 1.6 million ethnic Hungarians. Hungary drops its demands for ethnic autonomy for its minorities in exchange for minority rights guarantees. Concluded under Western pressure, the treaty will help both countries qualify to join NATO and the European Union.
EASTERN EUROPE
Armenia
Sept. 23 Preliminary results in the first presidential election (held on Sept. 21) since Armenia's 1991 independence from the Soviet Union show incumbent President Levon Ter-Petrossian as the winner, with 56.9% of the votes. But former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukian, the main opponent in the elections, accuses the President of election fraud; and in the face of voting irregularities, thousands of protesters demand that the President step down.
Sept. 24 As more votes are counted, the President's lead shrinks to 51.99% of the vote and supporters of former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukian demonstrate for a second day, asking for the President's resignation. The results show considerable decline for Mr. Ter-Petrossian, who obtained 80% of the vote when he came to power five years ago.
Sept. 25 With street demonstrations entering a third day, government troops use force to disperse the tens of thousands of protesters who are asking for the President's resignation.
Sept. 26 In an effort to stop the protests, government troops arrest and beat dozens of demonstrators while the government imposes a state of emergency in parts of Yerevan, Armenia's capital.
Sept. 27 Former Prime Minister Vazgen Manukian, who is in hiding, encourages the opposition to peaceful resistance, calling the government an “illegal power” that stole the presidential election. According to foreign election monitors, evidence of fraud lends credibility to claims that the President did not win more than 48% of the votes.
Russia
Sept. 4 Under growing criticism and suspicion, Anatoly Chubais, President Yeltsin's chief of staff, admits that Mr. Yeltsin is ill, although he refuses to divulge the nature of his illness. President Yeltsin has not appeared in public since he took office on August 9, “looking ill and unsteady.”
Sept. 5 In a major break with the Kremlin's tradition of shielding the illnesses of Russian leaders, President Yeltsin acknowledges that he needs heart surgery and will undergo an operation in September.
Sept. 7 German Chancellor Helmut Kohl visits President Yeltsin and finds him “active” but “worried” about his impending surgery. Mr. Kohl assures the Russian president that NATO's expansion will not take place this year.
Sept. 10 In preparation for his heart surgery, President Yeltsin hands over to Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin broad powers for national security and law enforcement but he retains the “nuclear button.”
Sept. 19 Moscow announces that Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin will control the Russian nuclear arsenal during President Yeltsin's operation, planned for late September or early October.
Sept. 23 Early deaths from heart disease are far more common in Russia than in the West—the consequence of years of insufficient funding and often substandard medical training. As a result, most Russians suffer and die without ever having access to the specialized cardiac care that many enjoy routinely in the West.
Sept. 24 The Kremlin has started a media campaign to convince the Russian people that President Yeltsin is still up to the job despite his disease. The Kremlin is also countering reports of infighting within its ranks, especially between Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin and security adviser Aleksandr Lebed.
Sept. 25 Complaining that many soldiers' salaries have not been paid for over three months, security adviser Aleksandr Lebed warns that the military's discontent could lead to serious unrest.
Sept. 28 In a challenge to President Yeltsin, security adviser Gen. Aleksandr Lebed suggests that Mr. Yeltsin relinquish his authority to a top official until he recovers from his operation. According to Mr. Lebed, it is unclear who is in charge and Mr. Yeltsin's aides are taking advantage of the power vacuum. Mr. Lebed's remarks are an attempt to undermine Prime Minister Chernomyrdin, who is his rival.
Russia/Chechnya
Sept. 2 Top Kremlin officials—including Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin—express concerns about the agreement to end the war in Chechnya Russian and Chechen officials signed on Aug. 31. The Kremlin's response reflects the internal power struggle between Mr. Chernomyrdin and his rival, Gen. Aleksandr Lebed, who negotiated the agreement.
Sept. 4 According to Gen. Lebed, 80,000 people have been killed and 240,000 wounded in the war in Chechnya. Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin “grudgingly” gives his support to the Chechnya agreement.
Sept. 6 Although under the accord the Russians remain in Chechnya as formal partners in administering the region, the Chechen rebels are establishing themselves as the dominant force. Chechen rebel leader Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev makes a triumphant entry into Grozny and the Chechen militia starts to impose Islamic law with a crusade against alcohol.
Sept. 7 President Yeltsin expresses his support for Gen. Lebed's peace agreement in Chechnya.
Sept. 13 While there has been a three-week lull in the fighting, Russian and Chechen rebel officials accuse each other of preparing their troops for new attacks.
THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA
Bosnia
Sept. 1 Campaigning for the elections in Bosnia that have been scheduled for Sept. 14 under the Dayton Accord, Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic holds rallies that feature Islamic prayers and songs. These rallies confirm the fears of those who believe that Mr. Izetbegovic wants to establish a Muslim state in Bosnia.
Sept. 2 The Polish government rejects a U.S. request to sell battle tanks to the Bosnian army as part of a program to build a strong Muslim-Croat Federation army that could deter future Serbian aggression. According to an official of the Polish foreign office, Poland “stands by the decision of the Europeans not to arm any side in any way.”
Bosnian Serb political leader Radovan Karadzic, who has been indicted on war crime charges, no longer appears in public and is not allowed to run in the Sept. 14 elections. But in a sign that Serbian nationalist candidates run on his ticket, his (forbidden) pictures are present at all Bosnian Serb campaign rallies.
NY Times, Sept. 9 Whether they are Muslims, Croats, or Serbs, the candidates for the Sept. 14 elections have been conducting campaigns marked by the same nationalism and intolerance that started the war five years ago. But the international force overseeing the elections still hopes to fulfill the goal of “creating ethnic cooperation.”
Sept. 10 According to NATO analysts, fighting in Bosnia will resume unless “a powerful NATO force” remains in Bosnia for at least two years. As a result, senior NATO officials are beginning to draft plans to extend the NATO peacekeeping force, originally scheduled to withdraw on Dec. 20.
Sept. 12 Estimates on the Bosnian elections indicate that, out of nearly three million voters in Bosnia, 150,000 will cross former battle lines to vote in areas from which they were expelled during the war and another 138,000 refugees may come from Serbia and Croatia.
Sept. 14 With a heavy turnout—60% to 70% of Bosnia's three million voters—Bosnians vote without major incidents to elect a three-member presidency (composed of an ethnic Croat, a Serb, and a Muslim), a national parliament, regional parliaments, and leaders of each of the three ethnic enclaves. All these institutions are to start functioning within two weeks.
Sept. 15 American mediator Richard Holbrooke announces that, in an “intense diplomatic effort” to bring the ethnic factions together, Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic and Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic will meet in Paris in early October. They will discuss establishing diplomatic and commercial relations and rail links to integrate the Bosnian government with the other republics and with the ethnic Croatian and Serbian enclaves in Bosnia.
Sept. 17 Voters give power to the existing leaders of Bosnia's three major ethnic groups. Totaling the most votes, Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic will be chairman of the presidency; he will be joined on the presidency by Bosnian Serb separatist Momcilo Krajisnik and ethnic Croat Kresimir Zubak. All three will serve for two years.
Sept. 18 Calling the Bosnian elections a “remarkable achievement,” U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher says that the U.S. will now be able to withdraw its peacekeeping force by year’s end as scheduled, although he acknowledges the need for some type of “follow-on international presence” in Bosnia. And in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Javier Solana emphasizes that the 50,000 international troops will not abandon Bosnia after their mandate expires on Dec. 20.
Sept. 19 With 320,000 Bosnian—mostly Muslim—refugees on German soil (half of the 700,000 Yugoslav refugees in Western Europe), Germany has decided to start sending them back to Bosnia on Oct. 1, but only to “safe areas” where the security situation allows it. Germany has long complained that the refugee financial burden is too great.
Sept. 21 Almost complete election results show that the same nationalists who plunged Bosnia into war four years ago have now won federal and regional legislative races, therefore weakening hopes for unity.
NY Times, Sept. 23 According to NATO officials, “a couple of hundred” Islamic militants who were part of the 4,000 volunteers sent by Iran and other Muslim countries in support of the Bosnian government have remained in Bosnia where they occupy a dozen villages in the central area. Well trained as fighters and terrorists, they are “poised” to strike at NATO forces in Bosnia. Repeated NATO requests to President Izetbegovic to send these foreign volunteers home (since their presence violates the Bosnia peace accord) have been ignored.
Sept. 24 According to reports by Western diplomats and Bosnian officials, the Bosnian Serb and Bosnian Croat political leaders Momcilo Krajisnik and Kresimir Zubak have formed a political alliance to thwart the goals of Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic. Since the three-member presidency must rule by consensus, such an alliance could paralyze the presidency.
Sept. 25 At the annual meeting of NATO defense ministers in Bergen, American officials say that the U.S. may support the creation of a NATO peacekeeping force in Bosnia in 1997. This force would have as many duties and be as large as the 50,000-men U.S.-led force that is preparing to withdraw in December.
Sept. 29 The Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which supervised the elections in Bosnia, certifies them despite accusations of intimidation and fraud because they “were acceptable considering that the country was emerging from a war.” The certification process is a first step toward creating a functioning government.
Sept. 30 In Sarajevo, Bosnia's newly elected Muslim, Croat, and Serbian leaders meet for the first time.
WESTERN EUROPE / EASTERN EUROPE
Greece
Sept. 22 Prime Minister Costas Simitis, who replaced former Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou as leader of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement, wins the legislative elections he had called in hopes of obtaining a broad endorsement from voters for his austerity measures. Mr. Simitis, who is pro-NATO, intends to bring Greece's economy in line with those of its European Union partners.
Sept. 23 With strong support from voters, Prime Minister Simitis moves to form a new cabinet that will push through changes in foreign and economic policy. Mr. Simitis, who has trained in Germany and Britain as an economist and a lawyer, “has called for an era of sacrifice.”
NATO/Russia
Sept. 21 U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry says that NATO has no intention of moving nuclear weapons along Russia's borders into potential new states, but he makes no promises on the subject.
Sept. 26 Warning that an expanded NATO would “sharply change the geopolitical situation in Europe,” Russian Defense Minister Col. Gen. Igor Rodionov says that NATO should give up plans to take in new members. But NATO officials' plans are to accept new members as early as next year, which would cause NATO troops to be deployed directly along Russia's borders with Europe.
Radio Free Europe/Hungary
NY Times, Sept. 28 At a conference on historians' access to Cold War archives, documents concerning Radio Free Europe broadcasts confirm that commentators encouraged Hungarians to fight during the 1956 uprising against the Soviets in the false hope that they would receive active support from the West.
United Nations
Sept. 10 At the U.N. General Assembly, 158 nations endorse the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty that would end nuclear weapons testing (the treaty does not bar computer simulations, however, or tests involving “subcritical” blasts that generate no radioactivity). To become international law, the treaty must be signed by all 44 countries that own nuclear reactors and ratified by their legislatures. India, which is believed to have a clandestine nuclear weapons program, says that it will not sign.
Sept. 17 The 51st session of the U.N. General Assembly begins “without ceremony, in financial crisis and with no idea who its Secretary General will be when this session ends on Dec. 23.”
Sept. 24 At the U.N., President Clinton signs the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty intended to ban all nuclear tests. Since the treaty will not go into effect for at least two years, Washington hopes to bring India around by then. Without India's assent, the treaty cannot enter into force, although countries that do ratify it will be required to observe its provisions.
U.S.A./Russia
NY Times, Sept. 24 Intent on highlighting Russian-American cooperation, the U.S. and Russia reach agreement on the first stage of the “theater missile defense” issue concerning low-velocity systems that would permit the U.S. to build defenses against shorter-range missiles while preserving the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The U.S. and Russia will now negotiate on the second part, to cover higher-velocity anti-missile systems.
With the decline of its Alaska oil fields, ARCO, the traditionally domestic oil producer based in Los Angeles, has been seeking new prospects overseas. It has teamed up with Lukoil, Russia's largest oil company, to develop the vast oil and gas reserves in Russia and the Caspian Sea region. ARCO and Lukoil will have respectively a 54% and 46% stake in the joint venture, called Lukarco.
U.S.A./Russia/NATO
Sept. 6 U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher announces that a NATO summit to name new members to the Alliance will take place in the spring or the early summer of 1997. He calls for a formal charter to handle NATO/Russia relations and promises that Russia will be integrated into a new world order, “our full partner in building a new Europe free of tyranny, division and war”; he also urges the European Union to proceed “swiftly” with a program of enlargement.
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