Center for Strategic Decision Research



Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon
Workshop Chairman and Founder
Director, Center for Strategic Decision Research

Under the patronage of President of the Czech Republic Václav Havel, the XIVth International NATO Workshop on Political-Military Decision Making was held in the Rudolph and Spanish Halls of Prague Castle on 21-25 June 1997. The Workshop's theme was "The New NATO: The Way Ahead." Prague Castle was originally built in the ninth century, and reconstructed and enlarged over the next thousand years; its Rudolph Hall, where sessions were held each day, was formerly the picture gallery of Habsburg Emperor Rudolph II. Contributing to the significance of the Workshop were the symbolism of Prague Castle--where the Warsaw Pact last met and the Pact was dissolved--and the Workshop's timing just before the summit of Madrid, where Alliance leaders reached an historic agreement on the first phase of NATO's enlargement to include the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. Together with the NATO-Russia Founding Act and the Ukraine-NATO Special Partnership Charter, the Madrid Summit was an important step forward for the New NATO toward a peaceful, democratic, and undivided Europe.

For the fourth year, General George Joulwan, as Supreme Allied Commander Europe and Commander-in-Chief United States Forces Europe, was the Honorary General Chairman. Since General Joulwan retired from active military service shortly after the Prague Workshop, this Workshop was his last as Honorary General Chairman. During the years of his leadership, the Workshop has been restructured and raised to a higher level as a principal forum for European and North American government, military, and industry leaders to discuss emerging issues of European security. The papers in this volume are based on presentations at the Prague Workshop. Since many of these chapters present purely personal views, they do not necessarily reflect the positions of their authors' organizations or governments.

Czech President Václav Havel opened the Workshop in Spanish Hall with a reception and dinner at which he was both our host and major speaker. The next morning, the Workshop sessions began in Rudolph Hall, in President Havel's presence, with addresses by Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski (Patron of the XIIIth Workshop in Warsaw), SACEUR General Joulwan, and a panel of commanders: Colonel General Leontiy Pavlovich Shevtsov, Deputy to SACEUR for Russian SFOR Forces, and General William W. Crouch, Commander-in-Chief of the United States Army Europe. (Colonel General Shevtsov is presently the Russian Deputy Minister of the Interior and General Crouch is now the Vice Chief of Staff of the United States Army.) Since Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi was unable to attend, his address was delivered by Ambassador Giovanni Jannuzzi, Italian Permanent Representative on the North Atlantic Council. Romanian President Emil Constantinescu opened the next day's sessions, where he was welcomed by President Havel. Although NATO Secretary General Javier Solana could not attend, his words of welcome were transmitted to the Workshop participants by both President Havel and General Joulwan.

In Obecn' dum, Czech Foreign Minister Josef Zieleniec, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense John White, and Prague's Mayor, Jan Koukal, gave important Workshop presentations. Early in this century, Obecn' dum was built as a symbol of Czech culture--a role it is now reassuming. Reopened after years of careful restoration, the Obecn' dum is a triumph of art nouveau architecture. At Troja Castle, Czech Prime Minister Václav Klaus gave a key address in the presence of Romanian President Constantinescu. Troja was a beautiful setting for the music of the Prague Quartet comprising Josef Riedlbauch, Josef Bauer, Jan Nykryn, and Karel Huth, and later on the Barrandov fireworks.

Several NATO Defense Ministers--all representatives of governments that have sponsored or hosted past Workshops--addressed us in Prague: Minister Jörgen Kosmo of Norway, Minister Jean-Pol Poncelet of Belgium, and Minister Joris J. C. Voorhoeve of the Netherlands, as well as former United Kingdom Defense Minister The Rt Hon Michael Portillo. Other major Workshop speakers were Romanian Defense Minister Victor Babiuc, Latvian Foreign Minister Valdis Birkavs, Western European Union Secretary General José Cutileiro, Austrian Defense Minister Werner Fasslabend, Defense Minister Dr. Lazar Kitanoski of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Hellenic Deputy Defense Minister Demetrios Apostolakis, Hungarian Foreign Minister Dr. Lászlo K--vács, Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nadezhda Mihailova, Estonian Defense Minister Andrus Öövel, Polish Foreign Minister Dariusz Rosati, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Algirdas Saudargas, Slovenian Foreign Minister Zolan Thaler, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Hennadiy Udovenko, Czech Defense Minister Miloslav Vyborny, as well as Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, Ambassador Mir-Gamza Efendiev of Azerbaijan, U.S. Ambassador Robert Hunter, and British Aerospace Group Managing Director John Weston. More than 30 nations participated at Prague Castle, with 20 countries represented at the level of foreign minister, defense minister, head of government, or head of state. Azerbaijan, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Uzebekistan participated this year for the first time. Representing the North Atlantic Council were Ambassadors Jean de Ruyt of Belgium, Giovanni Jannuzzi of Italy, Lambertus W. Veenendaal of the Netherlands, and Robert Hunter of the United States.

The NATO Workshop series, which is now in its 15th year, has been made possible by its sponsoring organizations: Government of the Czech Republic, Alenia Aerospace, Assistant Secretary of Defense (C3I), Association of the United States Army, The Boeing Company, British Aerospace Plc, Celsius AB, Defense Special Weapons Agency, Georgia Institute of Technology, Hughes Aircraft Company, Lockheed Martin, MATRA Hautes Technologies, McDonnell Douglas Corporation, MITRE Corporation, Net Assessment, Northrop Grumman, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), TERMA Elektronik AS, United Technologies, Government of Denmark, Government of the Federal Republic of Germany, Government of Greece, Government of Hungary, Government of the Netherlands, Government of Norway, Government of Poland, Government of Portugal, and the Italian Ministry of Defense. We appreciate the help of the Canadian Armed Forces over the years and the contributions of two associate sponsors: GEC-Marconi and Raytheon International Inc.

Of the sponsoring organizations, the Defense Special Weapons Agency (DSWA) has played a key role over the last decade. We are especially grateful to the agency's director, Major General Gary L. Curtin. Again this year, General Curtin and DSWA organized a major session with presentations by The Honorable Dr. Harold P. Smith, Jr., Assistant to the United States Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Chemical and Biological Defense Programs, and Mr. Paul J. Hoeper, United States Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for International & Commercial Programs. Rear Admiral J.O. Allison, the agency's Director for Operations, shared her experience in the planning of the agenda and DSWA's Workshop session. Mr. William Daitch of DSWA/NANF was our principal contact point at DSWA throughout an entire year of preparation for the Prague Workshop--as for past Workshops. Many others at DSWA were helpful, including Major General Randall Peat, Colonel John Koval, Lieutenant Colonel Raymond Bull, and, in DSWA's Acquisition Management Office, Mr. Edward Archer and Ms. Susan Benik. Former DSWA Director Vice Admiral Ted Parker was a helpful member of the Workshop's advisory board.

We are also grateful for the support of the Czech government--which began in Summer 1996 when President Havel traveled to the XIIIth Workshop in Warsaw to invite this year's Workshop to Prague Castle. President Havel's unwavering support facilitated the participation of senior government leaders, which together with the Workshop's tradition of not-for-attribution discussions may have helped set the stage for the Madrid Summit. In addition to the enthusiastic support of President Havel, Foreign Minister Zieleniec, and, of course, Defense Minister Vyborny, we benefited from the early contributions of First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexandr Vondra, and later from the assistance of Deputy Minister Ambassador Karel Kovanda and Mr. Stefan Fule. Mrs. Zieleniecová, the wife of Foreign Minister Zieleniec, welcomed the Workshop spouses to the Foreign Ministry and Mrs. Koukalova, wife of Mayor Koukal, invited them to the Mayor's official residence for a concert of opera songs. Among the Czech representatives were many of the country's highest leaders. These Czech participants included Director Zdenek Borkovec, Deputy Interior Minister Martin Fendrych, Mr. Vilem Holan of the Chamber of Deputies, Vice Minister Miroslav Kalousek, Minister of Industry and Commerce Karel Kuhnl, Mr. Michal Lobkowicz of the Czech Parliament, Trade Advisor Ambassador Karel Lukas, Minister of Agriculture Josef Lux, Head of President's Office Ivan Medek, Director Ladislav Mravec, Mr. Petr Necas of the Czech Parliament, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Jiri Nekvasil, Director General Jaromir Novotny, Justice Minister Vlasta Parkanova, Presidential Advisor General Karel Pezl, Director Otto Pick, Finance Minister Ivan Pilip, Senate Chairman Petr Pithart, Atlantic Commission President K. Schwarzenberg, Director Pavel Seifter, State Material Reserves President Dusan Strauch, Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Suman, Director General Pavel Telicka, Advisor to the Prime Minister Jan Zahradil, Senator Michael Zantovsky, and Chamber of Deputies Chairman Milos Zeman.

During the year of preparations leading up to the Workshop, Mr. Martin Vavra of the Foreign Ministry was our day-to-day contact--always available and totally dedicated to his organizational responsibilities. In addition to the contributions of the Guarant Company, a private organization which provided the Czech government with support on a contractual basis, the Czech government gave assistance whenever it was needed--which was undoubtedly the critical element that made the Workshop successful. Among the dozens of Czech officials, we appreciated Ladislav Beza, Jiri Machal, Lukas Martin, Alena Vlckova, Josefine Wallat--and so many others that it would be difficult to mention them all. Czech Ambassador to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council Ambassador Jaroslav Sedivy helped maintain effective communications with the Czech government. Other much appreciated contributors were Ambassador Petr Kypr of the Foreign Ministry, JuDr. Karel Lukas of the Ministry of Trade and Industry, and Mr. Jaromir Novotny of the Defense Ministry. We would also like to thank the Czech government for making the Prague Palace, Obecn' dum, and other treasured national monuments available for Workshop functions, for providing excellent security protection throughout the Workshop, for arranging to welcome participants at Prague Airport, for transportation to Workshop events, and for helping in countless other ways.

The NATO Workshop Advisory Board, which includes representatives of many of the sponsoring organizations, is listed below:

His Excellency Václav Havel; President of the Czech Republic
Past Patrons:
His Excellency Volker Rühe: Minister of Defense of Germany
His Excellency Aleksander Kwasniewski; President of the Republic of Poland
Board of Advisors:
Mr. Thomas M. Brennan; Boeing Defense and Space Group
General Peter Carstens; Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe
Lieutenant General Paul Cerjan (Ret.); Former President, National Defense University
Air Chief Marshal Sir David Evans (Ret.), GCB, CBE, CBIM; Former CinC United Kingdom Air Forces
Mr. François Heisbourg; Senior Vice President, MATRA Hautes Technologies
Mr. Robert Hermann;Senior Vice President, United Technologies
Vice Admiral The Hon Sir Nicholas Hill-Norton (Ret.); Defense Advisor, GEC-Marconi
Ambassador Erich Hochleitner; Former Austrian Ambassador to NACC
Admiral James R. Hogg (Ret.); Director of Strategic Studies Group, United States Navy
General George Joulwan, USA; Supreme Allied Commander Europe
State Secretary Andrzej Karkoszka; First Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland
His Excellency Dr. Lászl-- Kovács; Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary
General Jack N. Merritt (Ret.); President, Association of the United States Army
General Klaus Naumann; Chairman of NATO Military Committee
Lieutenant General Malcolm R. O'Neill (Ret.); Former Director, Ballistic Missile Defense Organization
Vice Admiral John T. Parker (Ret.); President, J. T. Parker Associates, Inc.
Mr. Harry Pearce;Vice President, Northrop-Grumman International
Mr. John Quilty; Senior Vice President, MITRE Corporation
Ambassador Dr. Hermann Freiherr von Richthofen; German Ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
General John Shalikashvili; Chairman of United States Joint Chiefs of Staff
Lieutenant General Jörn Söder (Ret.); Former German Military Representative to NATO Military Committee
Dr. James E. Soos; U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (C3)
State Secretary Andrzej Towpik; Polish Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs
His Excellency Tiit Vähi; Former Prime Minister of Estonia
Field Marshal Sir Richard Vincent (Ret.) GBE KCB DSO; Former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee
Ambassador Alexandr Vondra; Ambassador of the Czech Republic to the United States
Lieutenant General Klaus Wiesmann; German Military Representative to NATO Military Committee
Ing. Georgio Zappa; President, Alenia Aerospace
Honorary General Chairman:
General George Joulwan, Supreme Allied Commander Europe
Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon

General Jack Merritt, now President of the Association of the United States Army (AUSA), has been active since the third Workshop as a major speaker, as Honorary General Chairman of the fourth Workshop, and more recently as an Advisory Board member and sponsor. We appreciate AUSA's sponsorship and the participation of its representatives.

Alenia Aerospace, a leader of the Italian aerospace industry, is one of our longest-term European industry participants--having provided continuous support since our VIIth Workshop at Orta San Giulio in Northern Italy. As President of Alenia Aerospace, Ing. Giorgio Zappa is a valued supporter. We would also like to acknowledge the contributions of Colonel Aldo Ferraguto, who has represented Alenia Aerospace at recent Workshops.

United States Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Dr. James E. Soos and Captain Debra Gross, USN, helped develop the C3I dimension of the Workshop and, as in past years, coordinated senior U.S. Department of Defense participation. We would also like to thank Mr. Sal Manno. Among other senior representatives of the U.S. Department of Defense were Deputy Assistant Secretaries Dr. Katherine Kelleher and Major General Robert Osterthaler.

The Boeing Company was represented by Mr. Norman Scott, Vice President of Information and Communication Systems; Mr. Thomas M. Brennan (Boeing Defense and Space Group); Mr. Robert Draper, Vice President Europe of Boeing International; and Executive Consultant Mr. Nolan Stripling. Thomas Brennan is a member of the Workshop Advisory Board. We appreciate the continued sponsorship of the Boeing Company, and its Defense and Space Group. During the year, both Robert Draper and Thomas Brennan met with me to help plan for the Prague Workshop as well as defense industry sponsorship and participation. They also arranged for Michele Soukin to contribute to the Workshop as a member of our international staff in Prague. After three years of staff participation, she is one of its most experienced members.

British Aerospace PLC returned to the Workshop this year as a sponsoring organization. In addition to Group Managing Director John Weston, who gave a major Workshop address for the second year, British Aerospace was represented by Mr. Julian Scopes, Vice President for Eastern Europe. Air Chief Marshal Sir David Evans is now retired from British Aerospace but has continued his interest in the Workshop, his helpfulness as an Advisory Board member, and his participation as well.

As Canadian Military Representative to the NATO Military Committee, Lieutenant General Paul Addy chaired again this year the final Workshop session--with presentations by U.S. Ambassador Robert Hunter and former U.K. Defense Minister Michael Portillo that were stimulating indeed. As a Workshop sponsor, the Canadian Armed Forces provided air transportation support for the Workshop at a time when a Canadian aircraft was available in the European theater. In recent years, General Addy's office has continued support by allowing Ms. Manon van der Horden to contribute to recent Workshops as an international staff member.

Celsius Industrier has been a much appreciated sponsor. Vice President Borje Johanson has not only represented Sweden's Celsius Industrier in recent Workshops, but undoubtedly helped expand the growing Scandinavian participation in the Workshop series.

With the encouragement of its Defense Advisor, Vice Admiral The Hon Sir Nicholas Hill-Norton, GEC-Marconi has been an associate sponsor of the Workshop for the past two years. We appreciate the continuation of Sir Nicholas's active involvement in the Workshop in this way--involvement which began before his retirement from active military service.

For many years, the principal university sponsor of the Workshop has been the Georgia Institute of Technology. Dr. Daniel Papp, Executive Assistant to the President of Georgia Tech, represented the University while Brigadier General James Allen represented the Georgia Tech Research Institute. Georgia Tech's involvement is central to the concept of the Workshop as a not-for-attribution forum that permits an informal and effective exchange of ideas among Workshop speakers and participants about the political-military decision policies and options of European security.

Mr. Robin Beard, Chairman of Hughes Europe s.a.-n.v., Mr. John W. Snyder of Hughes, and Mr. W. R. Frederick of Hughes Europe (now retired) have given us strong support. Robin Beard was a leader in shaping industry policy as NATO's Assistant Secretary General and has continued his active interest since joining Hughes. Mr. John D. Largent has been our key point of contact at Hughes Europe for several years. We are grateful for Hughes's sponsorship.

From the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Technical Director Mr. Vince Roske, who has inspired JCS involvement in past NATO Workshops, participated for the first time in the Prague Workshop. Colonel Stanley Gorenc, Director of the Studies Analysis and Gaming Division (J?8), participated in the last three NATO Workshops. Through their support, Lieutenant Colonel Ray Griggs participated in Prague as a key staff member responsible for major Workshop events and protocol.

Before his retirement as Chief Executive Officer of Lockheed Martin, Mr. Norman Augustine actively supported and agreed to sponsor the Prague XIVth Workshop. At Lockheed Martin, we also appreciate the Workshop participation of its Vice President Robert Trice, as well as Mr. Robert Clifford, President of Lockheed Martin International (Central and Eastern Europe); Mr. E. Grady Jordan, Lockheed Martin Vice President for Central Europe; and Mr. Bruce Jackson of the corporate staff. Bruce Jackson has played a significant leadership role in developing official U.S. government support for NATO enlargement.

At Matra Hautes Technologie, Senior Vice President François Heisbourg has been a valued representative of French industry on the Workshop Advisory Board. We appreciate the sponsorship of Matra Hautes Technologies and the efforts of François Heisbourg to bring together at the Prague Workshop a session on Baltic security with presentations by foreign and defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Shortly after the Prague Workshop, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas agreed to a merger which is now complete. Mr. Fred Spivey of McDonnell Douglas was very helpful throughout the year. He welcomed me warmly during my visits to Brussels as well as coordinated McDonnell Douglas's sponsorship and participation, including that of executives Mr. Stuart W. Thomson and General Richard D. Hearney (who served as Assistant Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps prior to his recent retirement from active duty).

Since the third Workshop in Steyning, West Sussex, in the United Kingdom, Mr. John Quilty, MITRE's Vice President and Washington C3I General Manager, has been an active participant and a member of the Board of Advisors. The MITRE Corporation is a nonprofit research organization chartered by the U.S. Congress to support the Department of Defense in complex technical projects. MITRE's contributions have brought a great deal to the Workshop in the past decade.

At Northrop-Grumman--which is in the process of merging with Lockheed Martin--Corporate Vice President William James has been warm and enthusiastic in his support for the NATO Workshops, at which he has been one of the most experienced industry participants. Northrop-Grumman International Vice President Harry Pearce, who has recently joined the Workshop Advisory Board, and Mr. Thomas Darcy, of Northrop-Grumman International Europe, have both continued their contributions as active and effective advisors.

Like many in the defense industry, Raytheon is growing through acquisitions. It has recently acquired Hughes Aircraft, creating one of the largest U.S. defense contractors. At Raytheon, we appreciate the support of Brigadier General Robert Norman (Ret.). Like John Quilty, he has participated in the Workshop series for more than a decade--since the third Workshop. We are grateful for his participation as well as that of Mr. Albert G. Del Checcolo.

Since the first Workshop 14 years ago, Director of Net Assessment Andrew Marshall has been a principal advisor and sponsor. During that period, the Workshop has evolved dramatically. Rebecca Bash of the Office of the Director of Net Assessment has greatly smoothed the administration of our contract this year, as always.

In addition to Denmark's Chief of Defense General Christian Hvidt and other official participants, Denmark was represented by Major General Ole Fogh (Ret.) who attended again this year as the representative of TERMA Elektronik AS.

At United Technologies Senior Vice President Robert Hermann is a member of the Workshop Advisory Board. He is one of the very few Workshop participants and advisors who came to the first Workshop 14 years ago. He arranged for United Technologies to be represented by Mr. John B. McDonald, Director of International Development for United Technologies, Pratt and Whitney division.

Because of the Russian Federation's importance to European security, we are grateful for the participation of Ambassador Churkin, Colonel General Shevtsov and Mr. Evgueni Kojokin, Director of Russia's Institute of Strategic Studies.

The Workshop's international staff members, including of course Minister Counselor Mike Durkee as a senior policy advisor, was led with true wisdom and an impressive display of leadership skill by Colonel Mark Morgan of SHAPE. Especially during the last days before the Workshop, staff members were called upon to work long hours under unusual stress. Everyone responded to the challenge. Key members of this remarkable staff included Lieutenant Colonel Ray Griggs of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff; Mary Wu, J.D., a recent graduate of Stanford Law School, who assisted the Workshop for the second time; and Lieutenant Colonel Eugene Moseley (and his wife Bobbie)--also with a multi-year history of contributions to the Workshop. Monica Richmond worked so hard on the transportation coordination that we are not sure she always had time to eat. Captain Jeff Malcolm as well as Mr. Ulrik Ahnfeldt-Mollerup, Sergeant First Class Dana Davis, Sergeant Paul Zinck, and SrA Rhonda Singletary also worked for long hours that often approached those of Colonel Griggs. In addition, Anne Baylon, Whitney Hischier, Kendra Thayer, and Caroline Baylon of the Center for Strategic Decision Research were involved in our California offices in the months of planning leading up to the Prague Workshop. Brigadier Harry Brown (Ret.) provided helpful suggestions based on his work in SHAPE's Policy Division. We also appreciate SHAPE's help in providing a Boeing 707-class aircraft that brought a large group of senior NATO officials and military commanders from Brussels to Prague. Since several of those who contributed to the Workshop staff including Bobbie Moseley and Ulrik Ahnfeldt-Mollerup were volunteers, their efforts are doubly appreciated.

The Prague Inter-Continental Hotel, with its comfortable, modern rooms perfectly located on the Vltava River near both Prague's Old Town and the Prague Castle Workshop sessions, was home for the Workshop participants. The Inter-Continental provided truly spectacular food at both Troja Castle and a final dinner cruise aboard the river boat Vysehrad along Prague's Vltava River. Everything about the Inter-Continental Hotel was excellent--facilities, food, and service. And we especially enjoyed working with Ivo Kares, Václav Starek, Miloslav Cernik, and the entire hotel staff.

At Strategic Decisions Press, Anne Baylon put this book in final form for publication with the help of her remarkable editorial consultants Carol Whiteley, who reviewed each chapter, and Alice Kleeman, who did much of the word processing as well as transcriptions from audio tapes when necessary. Jackie Baum was a key administrative assistant, as well as an informal "office manager" for several months. Scribner Graphic Press of Menlo Park printed the book on its Heidelberg presses.

We wish to thank all the representatives of the sponsoring organizations and, of course, Czech President Václav Havel and the Czech government for inviting the Workshop to hold its XIVth meeting in Prague Castle--one of Europe's most historic and beautiful monuments. Finally, we would also like to thank Austrian Defense Minister Werner Fasslabend and the government of Austria for inviting the XVth NATO Workshop to Vienna in 1998.

Menlo Park, California
October 1997


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