Preface

Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon
Workshop Chairman and Founder
Director, Center for Strategic Decision Research

Workshop Participants and Scope

With German Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping as Keynote Speaker and Mr. Rainer Hertrich, Co-CEO of the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS), as Honorary General Chairman, the 19th International Workshop on Global Security took place in Berlin on 3-6 May 2002. The Workshop provided an international forum for senior officials from Europe, Africa, Asia, and North America to discuss broad security issues in a not-for-attribution setting. In cooperation with BDLI (the German Aerospace Industry Association) and the German government, the Workshop was held in conjunction with the ILA Berlin Aerospace Exhibition and Conferences. More than 150 participants met at the Hotel Palace Berlin to examine timely foreign and security policy questions, with an emphasis on the shifting priorities for world wide security since the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001.

Continuing the evolution that began several years ago, the 19th International Workshop sought to examine global defense—including Russia and Asia—and vital new security issues such as homeland defense and the response by the international community to the new terrorist threats. This year was a unique effort to bring together a broad range of experts from ministries of defense, ministries of foreign affairs, ministries of interior and transportation, aerospace and computer technology industries, the fields of biological warfare and weapons of mass destruction, and international organizations such as the United Nations, the North Atlantic Alliance, and the European Union. Key participants included Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus (who both addressed the Workshop for the fifth year); former President of Indonesia Dr. Ing. Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie, U.S. Ambassador to Germany Daniel Coats, and a remarkable group of Russian security specialists that was invited at the suggestion of U.S. Ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow. First Permanent Secretary of Defense from Singapore, Mr. Peter Ho, and the Deputy National Security Advisor from India, Dr. Satish Chandra, traveled far in order to participate. German Chief of Defense General Harald Kujat, Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe General George Joulwan, defense and foreign ministers, senior defense officials, military leaders and industry representatives contributed immensely to the Workshop discussions as well.

Workshop Venues

An opening dinner in the historic Weltsaal of the Foreign Ministry followed by an evening in the Ballhaus Pankow of former East Berlin, a special invitation to a reception hosted by the U.S. Ambassador to Germany, and the Berlin Air Show at Schönefeld Airport gave the 19th International Workshop participants the opportunity to take advantage of Berlin points of interest. As in the past, the program allowed for free time between sessions to give participants the opportunity for informal interaction.

ILA Berlin Air Show and BDLI. For the second time since 2000, the International Workshop was linked to the ILA Berlin Air Show and to BDLI. After the close of the last Workshop session, participants attended the ILA Opening Ceremony, with an address by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, and received a guided tour of the ILA grounds. With over 1,000 exhibitors from 40 countries and more than 200,000 visitors, ILA 2002 was a major event for the international aerospace industry.

Major Themes

Some of the main points brought out during the Workshop presentations and exchanges are summarized below.

Europe. The gap between U.S. and European defense capabilities remains, and European militaries need to restructure as Germany, Italy, and others propose in this volume. This disparity in capabilities is also likely to widen because the European public may not support increased spending on defense. Therefore, European governments must invest more efficiently and perhaps specialize their national armies and/or armaments industries into agreed “corridors.” The 60,000-man Rapid Reaction Force currently under creation will allow Europe to participate in out-of-area operations. But such European participation in future operations depends on effective technology sharing by the United States. Joint programs mutually conceived and developed by U.S. and European industries from their earliest beginnings may be one way to deal with the obstacles of technology-sharing.

Alliances. The transatlantic alliance remains important but must transform itself, perhaps into a more global alliance, if it is to stay relevant. It must adapt to the new realities and threats such as: religiously-motivated terrorism via land, sea and air, or even computer-generated threats; instability in the Middle East and Central Asia; the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; and the rise of China. Having moved beyond territorial defense, the transatlantic alliance must consider engaging the threat at its source. Yet, most European countries feel less affected by the new terrorism and some have already expressed reluctance to support a proposed armed intervention in Iraq. New forms of cooperation with Russia and perhaps Asia should be considered. In the meantime, the NATO alliance provides the interoperability and training that permits individual countries to participate effectively in coalitions of the willing such as the U.S.-led Operation Enduring Freedom.

Russia. Russia has chosen sides with the West, and President Putin largely deserves the credit. Russia wants to be a full partner in the fight against terrorism. This implies that intelligence and information sharing must be reciprocal—a tall order given the reluctance noted above by some long-time Alliance members to share information. In addition to threats from Chechnya (the war on terrorism has indirectly helped legitimize Russia’s efforts to quell rebel forces there), Russia is also facing destabilizing forces from the Caucasus and Central Asia, and it shares a border with China. With the Middle East much closer to Russia than to Europe or the U.S., Russia needs allies. It also needs continued political and financial support from Europe and the U.S. Ending the legislation developed during the Cold War and establishing a properly-functioning NATO-Russia Council would be useful steps toward improved relations between Russia and the West.

Network Centric Warfare. We are experiencing a revolution in military affairs based on the explosion in information technology. The manner in which we fight wars has changed, and tactical, intelligence and logistics information is now as much of a weapon for the soldier as light arms or heavy armor. Militaries can obtain information dominance and battlespace dominance by exploiting technology. Network centric warfare enables superior decision-making and response, with increased speed and accuracy, by utilizing a sensor to decision-maker to shooter information system.

Weapons of Mass Destruction. The potential threat of nuclear weapons, biological weapons, and chemical weapons is one of the more disturbing aspects of present-day terrorism. These types of weapons are more readily available now, and terrorists such as the ones who orchestrated the attacks on September 11 would probably not hesitate to use them. Research and development on combating and responding to chemical and biological weapons is needed, as well as a plan for an international response.

Domestic Agencies. The fight against terrorism must be fought on many levels and should include more government sectors than just defense and foreign ministries. Because of the threat of acts of terrorism against civilian populations, securing the home land is a strong priority and may involve departments of interior, transportation, agriculture, or housing. Just as importantly, the fight against terrorism also needs to include ministries of finance because the resources necessary to combat terrorism must be allocated and appropriated.

Southeast Asia. Indonesia is the largest Muslim nation in the world, and the international community should be observing and familiarizing itself with Islam in Southeast Asia as well as the Middle East. The Philippines and Malaysia currently have problems with Islamic-fundamentalist based terrorism. Singapore has been a target for terrorist attacks as well. Southeast Asia needs assistance from the West in combating terrorism and containing Islamic fundamentalism. Policies of the IMF as well as international oil, mining, banking and other corporations appear to be partly responsible for some problems in the region.

South Asia. Pakistan and India both have nuclear capabilities. Kashmir is a root cause for tensions in the region and should be a source of global concern. While India emphasizes the legal foundations of its claim to Kashmir and Pakistan feels that a majority of Kashmiris would choose attachment to Pakistan over India, others argue that a large percentage of Kashmir’s population would prefer some form of autonomy. Although Pakistan has been known as a harbor for Islamic fundamentalist terrorists, it is a country whose government promotes moderate Islam and has chosen to ally with the West in the war on terrorism. Afghanistan played a vital role in helping end the Cold War, but it was subsequently abandoned by the West with out the practical means and resources for reconstruction and recovery. The international community now has the opportunity as well as the responsibility to assist Afghanistan in reconstruction. As to India, it has been the victim of terrorist actions since its inception.

Civil Aviation. After the attacks of September 11, the civil aviation industry faces new and formidable challenges to ensure that no further security breaches occur and to boost passenger confidence. True international cooperation to develop uniform standards is needed because of the transnational and intercontinental nature of flights. Terrorist actions can be planned and developed from any geographic location, and the industry has a strong incentive to ensure that all countries have adequate safety controls. Developing countries will need international assistance to implement such measures. The new threats must first be identified, and responses to each of them must be developed. The aviation industry and governments must work together to review laws and penalties for aviation security crimes, to assess the availability and regulations surrounding war-risk insurance, and to find ways to implement both internal safety measures within an aircraft and external safety measures with regards to the air traffic system.

Issues to address. At least in the immediate future, the global struggle against terrorism is likely to continue as one of our greatest challenges. To respond effectively, it will be necessary to understand fundamental questions about the causes of terrorism, how to prevent the use of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), and how to develop effective coalitions against international terrorism. These questions include:

• Why does terrorism occur? Since many groups endure poverty or political frustration without resorting to terrorism, the presence of such conditions does not provide a sufficient explanation.
• Why do terrorists not use weapons of mass destruction, given that sub-state entities may have the capability to do so?
• How can an adversary’s desire to use WMD be reduced?
• How can a true coalition be formed against terrorism? Given that the effort against Al-Qaeda was largely a unlilateral, U.S.-led under taking, it cannot be a model.

Acknowledgements

The Center for Strategic Decision Research would like to thank all the Workshop participants for attending the 19th International Workshop on Global Security in Berlin and for contributing their perspectives and ideas to the Workshop discussions. We would also like to thank the following organizations and companies for their support: Agusta Westland, Alenia Aeronautica S.p.A., Audi, BDLI (which also includes Aerodata AG, Avis, Diehl Stiftung & Co., STN Atlas Elektronik GmbH), the Boeing Company, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, EADS, General Dynamics Corporation, Lockheed Martin, MITRE Corporation, Net Assessment, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon Company and Silicon Graphics, Inc.

We owe a special thank you to BDLI for its sponsorship and assistance. In particular, Dr. Hans Eberhard Birke, the President of BDLI, was a pivotal figure in bringing the Workshop to Berlin. We would also like to thank other BDLI representatives for their warm collaboration: Ms. Mirja Schüller, Ms. Susanne Schäfer, Ms. Alexandra Friedhoff, Mr. Gerhard Behrendt and Mr. Klaus-Hubert Fugger. Ms. Kristina Heese and Ms. Renate Lauterbach at the Berlin Messe were helpful and accommodating, despite their busy schedules.

Mr. Hans-Joachim Weber from the German Foreign Ministry’s Protocol Department was a special friend of the Workshop this year. His help with planning the Workshop’s opening dinner in the Foreign Ministry’s Weltsaal room, his assistance with transportation needs, and his general advice concerning protocol issues and German participation were invaluable. Ambassador Dr. Norbert Baas gave much appreciated welcoming remarks on behalf of the German Foreign Ministry at the Weltsaal opening dinner. We would like to thank Ms. Annette Birke from the Foreign Commercial Service office of the U.S. Embassy for her assistance with arrangements for the U.S. Ambassador’s reception. Brigadier General Peter Göbel, Germany’s Defense Attache in Washington, D.C. also played a key role.

For the second time, the International Workshop took place at the Hotel Palace in Berlin. The Palace served as the venue for the first two days of Workshop sessions, provided meals and catering, and offered accommodations for the Workshop participants. The Palace Hotel operates with the highest degree of professionalism, and it is always a great pleasure to work with its excellent staff. Our most heartfelt thanks and appreciation goes to Mr. Kurt Lehrke, the Resident Manager, for his assistance that went above and beyond the call of duty. We would also like to thank the entire Palace Hotel staff for their warm welcome, but especially Mr. Kurt Stiehle, the General Manager, Mr. Marc Mundstock for his banqueting and catering assistance, Mr. Ralf Lilienthal for his technical assistance, Mr. Jan Schleife for his assistance with the staff office and the conference room, and Ms. Dana Mönch for her accounting assistance. For the Workshop’s opening dinner at the German Foreign Ministry, the remarkable menu was prepared by Mr. Mathias Buchholz, executive chef of the Hotel Palace Berlin’s “First Floor” Restaurant.

The successful organization of nineteen years of workshops is largely the result of contributions by the Workshop’s patrons, honorary general chairmen, and advisory board members. We thank each of them for their contributions and support.

Patrons and Honorary General Chairmen:
President of the Czech Republic Václav Havel
President of Poland Aleksander Kwasniewski
Vice President of the Austrian Parliament Dr. Werner Fasslabend
Minister of Defense of Germany Rudolf Scharping
Former Minister of Defense of Denmark Jan Trøjborg
Former President of Hungary Árpád Göncz
Former Minister of Defense of Germany Volker Rühe
Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe General George Joulwan

Board of Advisors:
His Excellency Valdas Adamkus; President of Lithuania
Ambassador Fernando Andresen Guimarães; Permanent Representative of Portugal to the Atlantic Alliance
His Excellency Dr. Valdis Birkavs; Member of the Parliament of Latvia, Former Prime Minister
Dr. Hans E. Birke; President, BDLI (German Aerospace Industry Association)
Dr. Manfred Bischoff; Member of the Board of Directors, EADS
Lieutenant General Vincenzo Camporini; Vice Chief of Defense Staff of Italy
Lieutenant General Paul Cerjan (Ret.); Former President, National Defense University
Ambassador Javier Conde de Saro; Ambassador of Spain to the European Union
Mr. Eugene Cunningham; General Manager, International, Boeing Military Aircraft and Missile Systems
His Excellency Mikulas Dzurinda; Prime Minister of Slovakia
Dr. Thomas Enders; Executive Vice President, EADS
The Honorable Gordon England; Secretary of the U.S. Navy
His Excellency Dr. Werner Fasslabend; Vice President of the Austrian Parliament, Former Minister of Defense
Lieutenant General G. J. Folmer (Ret.); Netherlands Delegate to the International Workshops
The Hon. Dr. Jacques S. Gansler; Former U.S. Under Secretary of Defense
General George A. Joulwan (Ret.); Former Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Ambassador Karel Kovanda; Czech Permanent Representative on the North Atlantic Council
Admiral Jacques Lanxade (Ret.); Former Chief of Defense of France
General Jack N. Merritt (Ret.); President Emeritus, Association of the United States Army
General Klaus Naumann; Former Chairman of NATO Military Committee
His Excellency Ioan Mircea Pascu; Romanian Defense Minister
Mr. Harry Pearce; Vice President, Northrop-Grumman International
Dr. Andrei Piontkovsky; Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, Moscow
General John Shalikashvili (Ret.); Former Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff
Lieutenant General Jörn Söder; ISAS Institut fur Strategische Analysen
His Excellency Borys Tarasyuk; Member of the Parliament of Ukraine, Former Foreign Minister
Admiral Guido Venturoni; Chairman of the NATO Military Committee
Ambassador Alexandr Vondra; Ambassador of the Czech Republic to the United States
Mr. John Weston; Former Chief Executive, BAE SYSTEMS
Ing. Dr. Giorgio Zappa; Chairman, Alenia Aeronautica S.p.A

Each year, the Workshop is run by a highly-skilled and highly-educated staff that works long days and under time pressure to prepare for the Workshop. For their commitment to the success of the Workshop, we would like to thank: Mr. Sascha Cohen, a San Francisco internet technology specialist who speaks French, Hebrew and Arabic; Dr. Ania Garlitski, a medical doctor who specializes in internal medicine and speaks Polish and German; Ms. Manon van der Horden, a French-Canadian international conference consultant who worked at NATO Headquarters for 15 years; Ms. Jean Lee, a freelance graphic designer and photographer who speaks French and Mandarin; Ms. Britta Schultheis, a German tax and audit specialist who serves as finance manager for a large German company in Hamburg; Mr. Shishir Verma, a mechanical engineer and investment banker who speaks Hindi; and Mr. Eugene Whitlock, an attorney and investment banker who speaks Spanish.

In our preparations for the 19th International Workshop on Global Security, Mr. Andrew Marshall, Director of Net Assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, as well as Ms. Rebecca Bash, contributed immensely. We appreciate their efforts.

Roger Weissinger-Baylon
Anne D. Baylon
Mary L. Wu
Center for Strategic Decision Research, Menlo Park, California
July 2002